It’s your early May mortgage and housing update, and I’m calling it early May for a reason.

There are major events this month that could create significant volatility in mortgage rates, so there’s a very good chance we’ll need another update before the end of the month.

If you’d rather watch or listen to the full breakdown, here’s the video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=82pWM3wLyfM 

Let’s walk through what’s actually happening in the market right now and what it means for you.

Buyers Aren’t Backing Off—Even With Global Uncertainty

Here’s the headline:

Pending home sales over the last four weeks are the highest they’ve been since September 2022.

That’s a big deal.

When the Iran conflict started, many economists expected the housing market to stall. Historically, when there’s uncertainty or chaos, buyers tend to pause. They wait for things to “calm down.”

We saw that:

• during election years
• during tariff concerns
• during other economic shifts

But this time? That didn’t happen.

Buyers didn’t back away.

And what that tells me is simple: people are done waiting.

At this point, if you’re waiting for the world to feel “stable” before buying a house, you may never buy one. That’s just the reality of the world we live in.

There has always been uncertainty. The difference now is we’re just more aware of it because of the 24/7 news cycle and social media.

Where Mortgage Rates Are Right Now

Let’s talk rates.

As of right now (and this is a general ballpark):

• Conventional and jumbo loans are in the mid to high 6% range
• VA and FHA loans are still generally below 6%

That’s without points or buying down the rate.

Since the conflict started, rates have increased, but not dramatically. We’re talking about roughly a half-percent increase, not a full percent jump.

So yes, rates moved, but not in a way that shut buyers down.

Demand Is Up, But Competition Is Easing

Now here’s something really important if you’re a buyer:

Pending sales are about 8% higher than last year.

That’s solid growth.

But at the same time, competition is cooling in a way that actually benefits you.

Only 26% of homes are selling above asking price right now, which is the lowest we’ve seen in five years.

That’s huge.

Because if you’ve been in this market over the last few years, you know how intense it’s been:

• bidding wars
• paying over appraisal
• waiving everything just to win

Now?

You actually have more room to negotiate.

Prices Are Still Rising—But Affordability Is Improving

On average, home prices went up about 1.9% in 2025.

But here’s the interesting part:

Mortgage costs have actually decreased by about 2.2% on average.

So even though prices are still creeping up, affordability has improved.

I would argue affordability right now is the best we’ve seen since 2021.

And if you’re someone who actually needs a house—not just casually browsing—this is a much better environment than what we saw in 2021–2022.

Why National Data Doesn’t Tell the Whole Story

You’ll hear stats like:

• Median home price is around $394K
• Prices are up or down nationally

But here’s the truth:

Real estate is hyper-local.

It’s not even just about your state—it can come down to:

• Your city
• Your neighborhood
• Even a few streets

Example:

• One area might average $900K+
• A few streets over could be $400K

That’s why you need to:

• Look at your specific market
• Check local listings
• Understand what’s happening where YOU want to buy

Not just what the headlines say.

Buyers Have More Options Than They’ve Had in Years

This is one of the biggest shifts I’m seeing personally.

Back in 2021–2022:

• We’d do hundreds of pre-approvals
• Only a small percentage would actually win a home

Now?

Buyers are:

• getting pre-approved
• finding homes quickly
• choosing between multiple good options

I had a client in Texas who said they had over 30 homes to choose from.

That’s a completely different market.

And with that comes:

• more negotiating power
• better chances of getting closing costs covered
• less pressure to overpay

What’s Happening With the Fed (And Why It Matters)

Now let’s talk about what could shake things up.

There’s a potential change in the Fed chair position, and a lot of people are assuming:

“New leadership = lower mortgage rates.”

That’s not how this works.

The Fed controls the Fed funds rate, not mortgage rates directly.

And here’s the bigger concern:

There’s a discussion about reducing the Fed’s balance sheet of mortgage-backed securities.

That matters A LOT.

Because:

• When the Fed buys mortgage-backed securities → rates go down
• When the Fed sells them → rates go UP

Why?

Because investors need to be incentivized to buy them, and that usually means higher returns, aka higher mortgage rates.

So if that plan moves forward, it could actually push rates higher, not lower.

What Buyers Should Do Right Now

Here’s the practical takeaway.

We are likely heading into a period of rate volatility.

That means:

• Rates could go down
• Rates could go up
• Things could move quickly

Because of that, my team has been advising clients to seriously consider locking their rate.

Here’s why:

• If you lock and rates drop → we can often renegotiate
• If you don’t lock and rates go up → you’re stuck with the higher rate

That’s the risk.

Some buyers are choosing to float and wait. That’s their call. But you need to understand the risk you’re taking.

The Bottom Line

Here’s what matters most right now:

• Buyers are active and not waiting anymore
• Inventory is better than it’s been in years
• Competition is easing
• Affordability has improved
• But rates could get volatile fast

This is not a “wait for perfect conditions” market.

It’s a be-prepared-and-make-smart-decisions market.

The market is shifting, but that doesn’t mean you need to rush; it just means you need a plan.

If you’re trying to figure out whether now is the right time to buy or how to navigate all of this without making a costly mistake, having someone walk you through it can make a big difference.

My team and I are always here if you want to talk it through.

📞 Call or Text Me: (786) 933-2077
🏡 Get Pre-Approved: https://www.zerostressmortgage.com 
📅 Set Up a Time to Chat: https://calendly.com/jennifer-beeston