If you’ve been watching mortgage rates in 2026 and feeling like things are all over the place… you’re not wrong.

We came into this year expecting stability. Lower rates. A smoother market.

That’s not what happened.

If you’d rather watch or listen to the full breakdown, here’s the video:
Watch on YouTube 

Let me walk you through what’s actually going on and how to navigate it without making a costly mistake.

What’s actually driving mortgage rates right now

There are two major factors.

1. Global instability

Specifically, the Iran conflict.

Call it what you want—conflict, war, whatever—but from a financial standpoint, this is the kind of uncertainty markets hate.

At first, people thought it would be short-term. Now the question is:

• How long will this last?
• What does it do to inflation?
• What happens to oil prices?

That uncertainty is pushing volatility across the board.  

2. Federal Reserve uncertainty

We also have instability over who will actually lead the Fed.

Jerome Powell is supposed to step down, but the confirmation process for the next chair is stalled. There’s political tension. There’s a DOJ situation tied to it.

Translation?

Markets don’t know what’s coming next.

And when markets don’t know what’s coming next, rates move.

So… should you just wait?

No.

If you wait for the world to feel stable before buying a house, you’re going to be waiting forever.

We’ve seen this play out over and over:

• COVID
• Tariffs
• Economic swings

And what happened?

In most areas, home prices kept going up anyway.  

How to actually win in a volatile market

Let’s break this down based on where you are.

If you’re already a homeowner

You’re in a great position.

You already have the house; the hardest part is done.

Now your only question is:
Does refinancing make sense?

That’s it.

If your rate is already lower than today’s market, don’t let someone talk you into paying thousands in points just to “feel” like you’re winning.

If it makes sense, we’ll tell you.
If it doesn’t, we’ll tell you that too.

If you’re a homebuyer

This is where strategy matters.

First thing you need to understand:

Your pre-approval rate is NOT your final rate.

It’s a snapshot.

So here’s what I want you to do:

If your pre-approval is at 6.5%, ask:

• What’s my payment at 7%?
• Do I still qualify at 7%?

Then also ask:

• What’s my payment at 6%?

Now you understand your range.

Because yes, rates can go up.
They can also go down.

Right now? No one knows.  

And let me be very clear about this…

Anyone telling you they KNOW where mortgage rates are going?

They don’t.

There is too much happening globally and economically for anyone to predict this with certainty.

Here’s the move in a market like this

Simple.

If you like the rate, lock it.

Do not gamble.

Because if you don’t lock, and rates go up, you’re stuck.

But if you lock and rates drop?

There are often options to renegotiate during your contract.

That’s how you protect yourself.

The biggest mistake I see

People are trying to outsmart the market.

Waiting. Guessing. Hoping.

Meanwhile, life is moving forward.

You don’t need to win the rate game.

You need to remove risk.

Final thought

Would I love a year of stable, low rates?

Absolutely.

That would be amazing.

But that’s not the market we’re in.

So instead of waiting for perfect conditions, you prepare for reality and make smart decisions in it.

That’s how you win.

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