Thank goodness 2025 is over! Honestly, it’s been a rollercoaster for the housing and mortgage market. Focusing on the numbers, the mortgage trends, and what this means for homebuyers, investors, and sellers going into 2026.

I’ve been a mortgage lender for 19 years, and my team is one of the top mortgage teams in America. If you’re thinking about buying a house, refinancing, or just trying to make sense of the market, give us a call at 786-933-2077.

Here’s the 2025 year-end housing and mortgage market update.

2025 Interest Rate Trends: From 7% to Low Sixes

We started 2025 with a conventional mortgage rate of around 7%, thanks to post-election volatility. That’s not what anyone wanted, especially for first-time homebuyers or people trying to upgrade their homes.

By May, we started seeing modest dips in rates, and now at the end of 2025, conventional mortgage rates are in the low six percent range.

That 1% drop may not sound like much, but on a $500,000 mortgage, it can mean hundreds of dollars less per month and thousands over the life of the loan. Lower rates increase home affordability and could set the stage for a strong spring market in 2026.

Spring Market Outlook: Inventory and Lock-In Effect

Inventory growth in 2025 peaked around May, with 30% year-over-year growth, but by year-end, we were at 16% YOY growth. That’s better than nothing, but not enough to fix the nationwide housing inventory shortage.

A lot of sellers remain “locked in” because they bought homes with ultra-low rates in prior years. They’re waiting for their dream price, which means low inventory persists in many markets, even though national headlines suggest otherwise.

Seller Behavior & Delisting

2025 was also the year of delisting. Many homeowners in Texas, Florida, and Phoenix, especially investors, are staying put unless they get the price they want. Until sellers become motivated, low inventory will continue to challenge buyers.

Listings vs Homes Sold: What the Numbers Say

As of November 2025:

• 3.19 million homes were listed
• 4.03 million homes were sold

Even with higher inventory than prior years, we’re still selling more homes than are listed, tapping into prior listings. For context, 10 months of inventory in 2008 created the market crash. Right now, nationwide months of inventory average just 4.5 months, so we’re not anywhere near a housing crash.

Home Price Trends Nationwide

Good news for buyers: median home prices increased 1.29% nationwide in 2025. That’s modest compared to the extreme gains from 2020–2022, and some markets are even seeing slight price reductions.

Key takeaway: home prices are market specific. You could be in a high-inventory market with more affordability, or in a low-inventory market where prices remain elevated.

Pending Home Sales: 2025 vs 2024

• Weekly pending home sales 2025: 296,525
• Weekly pending home sales 2024: 293,258

That’s almost identical. The market is normalizing, and the number of buyers moving into homes remains strong. Our team helped more people into homes this year than last year, and 2026 is looking like a refi-heavy year with even more opportunities for homebuyers.

Seller Realism and Lock-In Effect

After the craziness of 2022, when some homes appreciated 20–40% in a single year, sellers are finally becoming more realistic. But the lock-in effect is real: unless sellers experience life changes like divorce, relocation, or financial necessity, they’re unlikely to sell. This continues to limit inventory and impacts affordability.

Property Taxes & Capital Gains: 2025 Policy Changes

Property taxes are on the front line in 2025. States like Texas and Florida are exploring relief for seniors, while capital gains policies remain outdated. This impacts homeowners, especially in high-cost areas like California, who are hesitant to sell due to tax implications.

Homes are still how Americans build wealth. If property taxes or capital gains make selling prohibitive, it’s harder for homeowners to grow net worth through real estate.

Mortgage Delinquencies & Foreclosures

Despite some scary headlines, the reality is different:

• National mortgage delinquency rate: 3.85%
• Pre-foreclosure inventory nationwide: 226,000 homes

These numbers are far from a 2008-style crisis. Delinquencies are mostly concentrated in Mississippi, Louisiana, and Alabama. For most of the country, the mortgage market remains stable.

2025 Wrap-Up: A More Normal Market

• Rates dropped from 7% to low sixes, increasing affordability
• Inventory grew but remains limited in many regions
• Median home prices rose modestly to 1.29% nationally
• Mortgage delinquencies remain low at 3.85%
• Sellers are slowly becoming more realistic
• Policy conversations around property taxes and capital gains may impact the market in 2026

2025 wasn’t a disaster; it was a year of stabilization. We’re returning to a more normal housing and mortgage market. If you’re thinking of buying, refinancing, or investing, knowledge is power.

For more updates, stay tuned to our channel and website. And remember, my team and I are always here to help you navigate the mortgage market and make smart homeownership decisions — give us a call! 786-933-2077